AHDB: Middle East sheep market outlook
The region produces small volumes of sheep meat so relies on global imports to meet demand. Wider factors for increased demand include growth in the population and number of tourists, which will boost consumption of sheep meat. Research by AHDB shows that overall buying behaviours in the Middle East are driven by quality (Halal assurance) and taste. However, there are barriers to consumption, specifically for British lamb, such as price points and perception of Halal assurance. Other exporting countries, such as Australia, may not face such pressure with lower prices on the global market.
The Middle East has grown in importance for Australia, as the largest sheep meat exporter to the region. Reports note that the Middle East prefers lighter lambs (exported whole), which can be cheaper (c/kg) compared to heavier lambs. Exports of chilled lamb carcases grew by 150% (20,000 tonnes) from Australia to the globe to reach 33,300 tonnes for 2023. Exports from Australia to many Middle Eastern and Gulf countries has grown from 2022 to 2023. During this time, lamb carcase exports to the United Arab Emirates grew by 3,250 tonnes (47%) to 10,100 tonnes.
However, in recent weeks, exports to the Middle East from Australia have been interrupted by attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea. This interruption has added an approximate ten days in order to reroute trade as a result. As purchase of lambs has begun for Ramadan, which runs through March, supplies into the Middle East from Australia could be impacted. This may have a knock-on effect for volumes available on the global marketplace. As the Midde East is a lucrative market for Australia, a fall in the ability to export there could see more product available.
The Agri-market outlook for 2024 sees imports increasing by around 4%, with growth from Australia. This is particularly in the first half of the year when domestic supplies are tightened. The conflict in the Middle East is a watch point to consider throughout 2024, with the potential for more Australian product needing a home on the international market.
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