Chinese pork imports to double by 2020 - broker
Broker and consultancy firm INTL FCStone is expecting a double volume of pork imports in China in 2020 due to the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak. Last year, China imported 2.1 million tonnes of pork and it could reach 4.2 million tonnes in 2020, said Renato Rasmussen, Director of Commodity Intelligence at INTL FCStone. Increased imports of poultry and beef are also expected as part of the Chinese consumers will switch from pork to other animal protein.
FCStone estimated during a commodities outlook conference in Sao Paulo that China's pork meat production will fall to 38 million tonnes in 2019 from 54 million tonnes in 2018. It expects the production to fall further to 34 million tonnes in 2020, as the country will continue to struggle to control the disease, informs the Nasdaq website.
Rasmussen expects that the EU, Japan and South Korea will benefit from rising Chinese pork imports as Beijing is currently engaged in a trade war with the US and has blocked pork imports from Canada. The analyst said Brazil could benefit from the situation, not only from higher pork exports but as well by shipping more beef and poultry.
"I believe beef trade could benefit the most because it would be a more natural transition for Chinese consumers to opt for beef than poultry. China will overcome the situation, but it will take time. The country will have to completely modernize its pork production system," he said. According to the latest outlook from Rabobank, China's pig inventory could drop by 50% next year and it could take up to 5 years to rebuild its herd.
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