Scottish beef prices to rebound this time of year
Stuart Ashworth, QMS Director of Economic Services believes that, despite recent falls in cattle and beef prices in Scotland, current prices will "once again moved ahead of year-earlier levels to start November 2p/kg dwt higher than last year".
Prices are expected to rise as demand for beef increases in the run-up to winter holidays as Christmas buying will be underway shortly and premium beef, often with a 21 or 28-day maturation period, will need to be purchased over the next couple of weeks to meet consumer demand. "The availability of prime stock in the run-up to Christmas may prove to be better than last year as some of these slower finishing cattle come onto the market. Demand for beef will be expected to grow in the run-up to Christmas, particularly for the more expensive roasting joints.
Data on retail sales from Kantar Worldpanel typically show that beef sales over the Christmas and new year period can be 2-3% higher than in the month previous while demand for roasting joints can double".
As a consequence, it is not unusual to see prime cattle prices begin to firm in mid-November before dipping away again from mid-December. A typical rise over this period during the past five years is around 2-3p/kg dwt. Last year the price climb was striking, lifting 7p/kg dwt over November as cattle numbers tightened.
In contrast to prime cattle, the weekly slaughterings of cull cows over July, August and September have been running higher than year-earlier levels said Mr Ashworth, although they have been producing lighter weight carcases possibly of poorer conformation.
"Price-reporting abattoirs indicate that the weekly kill of cull cows has continued to run ahead of year-earlier levels through October.
As numbers of cull cows increased, prices started to slide particularly through July and August. This has led to a sharp decrease in prices with the current price being around 18 p/kg dwt below last year", added Mr Ashworth.
Imports of frozen beef, more likely to be competing with cow beef for manufacturers interests have also been running higher than last year through the autumn, according to QMS Director of Economic Services. In contrast imports of fresh and chilled beef have been very similar to last year’s levels.
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