The world may not have enough pork to feed China
Global pig industry may experience a "perfect storm" that is to reshape the face of the industry in the coming years. Due to the ASF situation in China, a period of volatility is expected in the market, as the demand from the largest pig market in the world does not match the global supply.
This year, China is about to lose 200 million pigs to disease or slaughter, according to Rabobank analysts. The figure is almost three times the number of pigs existing in the US and equal to pork production reported in the EU.
Rabobank senior analyst Chenjun Pan said pork production would fall in China this year and next. "A lot of the herd will disappear due to infection and liquidation. There will be a great shortage. We don’t think any country in the world – or the whole world combined – could cover this supply gap. Even after increasing the imports, there remains a supply shortage," he explained.
Officials from the Chinese government are expecting a price increase of 70% for pork until the end of the year and that will be reflected in the global market as well and will have an impact on prices for all animal protein.