According to Rabobank, “prices are stabilized at high levels, supported by strong global demand and limited supply, with record exports and reduced global production.”
In January-May, Brazil’s beef exports -the world’s leading exporter- totaled 1.22 million tons, 19% more than in the same period last year, representing the highest volume for that period in the historical series 1977-2025.
The average export price at the beginning of June, around US$6,600 per ton, is 21% higher than a year ago. The pace of shipments during the first half of the month suggests a new export record for June.
Australia, the world’s second largest exporter, shipped 658,000 tons in January-May, 16% more than in the same period in 2025, with an average FOB price 18% higher than last year.
Argentine shipped 257,000 tons (weight equivalent) of beef in January-April of this year, 10% more than last year, with a 45% increase in foreign exchange earnings. The average FOB price for the first four months of 2026 is 32% higher than a year ago.
The European Union imported 134,000 tons of beef in the first four months of 2026, 25% more than in January-March 2025, while its exports totaled 289,000 tons, 8% lower than the previous year. Imports have been rising and exports from the European Union falling for some time now.
If the suspension of Brazilian beef imports from the European Union is confirmed starting in September, due to the misuse of antibiotics, a market of about 85,000 tons per year, worth about 800 million dollars, would be left vacant, composed of 36% chilled meat and 64% frozen meat, with Argentine, the United Kingdom and Uruguay – the other natural suppliers to the EU – being the countries that could best take advantage of this opportunity.
The United States imported 819,000 tons in the first five months of the year, 13.4% more than in January-May of last year. Purchases from Argentine increased by 108% compared to last year, but our country still only accounts for 4% of US purchases, ranking seventh among suppliers so far in 2016. Brazil and Australia together account for 43% of US purchases.
In the first five months of the year, shipments from Uruguay fell by 15% and those from Paraguay by 26%. Not all countries have sufficient raw materials and can take advantage of the exceptional moment in the international market.
China, the world’s largest importer of beef, purchased 1.07 million tons in the first four months of the year, 21% more than last year. It is estimated that by mid-June, Australia will have already filled its annual quota and Brazil 80% of its quota, so imports from these two countries are expected to decrease drastically in the coming weeks as their quotas are exhausted.
Exporters that retain quotas for the second half of the year (Argentina, Uruguay) are confident of obtaining price improvements, but Chinese importers say that the high existing stocks of imported meat will limit any significant increase in prices.
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