Dutch bank Rabobank anticipates a slowdown in global pork production during the second half of 2026.
Although the market is registering low prices in the short term due to an oversupply and stagnant demand, the entity’s analysts identify an ongoing rebalancing process.
Oversupply and weak consumption are currently weighing on prices in major producing regions. In  China, capacity expansion and production improvements over the past five years have generated a large surplus. However, the continued decline in the breeding herd in the Asian country will reduce supply starting in the middle or end of the third quarter.
North America, for its part, will also experience improvements toward the fourth quarter of the year.  Despite these adjustments, Rabobank forecasts that  price recoveries will be modest until 2027 due to overall weak demand.
Global trade will remain  relatively stable in the second half of the year, although it is undergoing significant structural changes. Europe is losing market share following health issues and reduced Chinese demand, while Brazil is rapidly expanding its international presence and achieving record export volumes.
In the area of imports, countries like Mexico and the Philippines are significantly increasing their purchases abroad, a fact that contrasts with the volume reductions applied by China.
Animal diseases, geopolitical uncertainties, and adjustments in trade policies – such as the anti-dumping tariffs that China applies to European imports— threaten the stability of trade and guarantee volatility during the second half of the year.
The pork sector faces a structural challenge  stemming from  changes in global dietary preferences. Consumers  in multiple markets  are progressively replacing pork with poultry alternatives due to economic uncertainty and the search for convenient products.
Given this scenario, Rabobank urges companies in the sector to  accelerate product innovation  to align their offering with the new needs of the market.
Productivity improvements are sustaining global supply growth, as producers focus their efforts on cost control and operational efficiency.
The adoption of  artificial intelligence tools, continuous automation, feed optimization, and genetic advancements  allows for  reduced labor costs  and  increased productivity. These technological and biosecurity improvements help offset the production challenges posed by recurring disease outbreaks worldwide.
