Global pork production is expected to see moderate growth in 2026. According to forecasts by AMI, global output is projected to increase by 0.6%, reaching a total volume of 129.5 million tons. This slight upward trend is primarily due to capacity expansions in China, Brazil, and the USA, which will offset the significant declines in the European market.
Producer prices for slaughter pigs in EU member states have been under significant downward pressure since the beginning of 2025/26. This has several causes: On the one hand, import tariffs imposed by China are impacting the export business of European suppliers. On the other hand, the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in Spain in November 2025 led to regional marketing restrictions, resulting in a substantial surplus of pigs on the EU internal market. Due to the resulting decline in profitability, a reduction in pig herds in Europe is expected later in the year.
Global demand is developing in two directions
Similar to production, global demand is also expected to rise slightly in 2026. While consumption levels in the main consumer country, China, will remain largely stable, other emerging markets are showing strong growth. Demand is rising sharply, particularly in Mexico (+4.6%) and Vietnam (+3.0%). In contrast, consumption in the EU is expected to decline slightly.
Dynamics in global trade: USA extends its lead
Global trade in pork is also expected to pick up further in 2026. Driven by Mexico’s high import demand and aided by the limited export potential of its European competitors, the USA is likely to increase its export volume and further solidify its market leadership in the export sector. In contrast, the export volume of European countries will be lower overall this year due to trade barriers related to disease control measures following the African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in Spain. On the demand side, Mexico is expected to further consolidate its position as the world’s most important import market for pork.
