In the first half of 2026, China had already imported 1.53 million tons, equivalent to almost 60% of the quota set for this year.
Brazil, Argentine, and Australia have progressively increased their share of the Chinese market, displacing other traditional suppliers. This trend intensified during the first months of 2026. Brazil alone accounted for 57% of China’s import volume between January and June. Argentine and Australia also registered significant year-on-year increases.
Together, the three main suppliers accounted for 86% of Chinese imports.
The high participation of the three main suppliers reflects both their operational capacity to bring forward shipments in the face of the new regulatory scheme, and the caution adopted by smaller-scale exporters, who may be preserving part of their quotas for a later stage of the year.
Uruguay experienced a drop in volume, partially offset by improved prices. New Zealand showed a recovery compared to the end of 2025, although with a year-on-year decline.
The United States, with virtually no operations in recent months, accumulated a mere 876 tons through June 2026. To date, the recent reopening of US meatpacking plants authorized to export to China is not yet reflected in foreign trade statistics. However, it represents a necessary step for the eventual recovery of the US market share in China in the coming months.
Beyond the limitations linked to health requirements, waste and high domestic prices, this reopening represents an indispensable step to recover a trade flow that reached over USD 2 billion in 2022.
Among secondary suppliers, there is a lower incidence within the total imported by China, as well as a greater fragmentation of origins, which in 2025 were concentrated in Bolivia.
Based on import data provided by Customs, China used almost 60% of the amount allocated for the entire year 2026 in its first half.
The allocation of quotas explains a significant portion of each supplier’s market share during the first half of the year. However, as the year progresses, the way each country manages this preferential access could begin to create differences in the pace of shipments to the Chinese market.
China ‘s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) had anticipated that Australia would have used 100% of its quota by 18/06/2026, which was reflected in the first half statistics.
Brazil used 79%, although Chinese authorities recently announced that it had reached 80% as of July 21.
Argentine, which has the largest quota after Australia and Brazil, has used approximately half of it, which would allow it to maintain its shipping level in the coming months, although it would not compensate for the potential withdrawal of Brazilian exporters.
A similar comment can be made regarding Uruguay and New Zealand, which have used a smaller proportion and between them have a surplus of almost 400,000 tons, a significant amount, but one that they would have difficulty producing.
Everything indicates that Chinese beef imports will experience a decrease in the second half of 2026.
