The European Commission now expects slightly higher pork production in 2026 than forecast in the spring. However, it anticipates a slight overall decline in exports, as African swine fever continues to impact trade flows.
The European Commission expects a slight increase in pork production in the EU for the entire year of 2026. According to the EU’s latest short-term outlook, production is projected to rise by 0.5% compared to the previous year, reaching approximately 22.18 million tons. In the spring, the Commission had anticipated a decline of 1.0%. The forecast has thus been revised upwards by 1.5 percentage points.
Slaughter figures so far this year have been higher than originally expected by EU experts. While the Commission still anticipates fewer slaughters in the second half of the year compared to the same period last year, the decline is expected to be less severe than projected in the spring.
Exports to China are declining significantly
The situation remains tense in the export sector as well. The EU Commission expects a decline in pork exports of 0.5% to just under 2.97 million tons in 2026. Deliveries to China are expected to fall particularly sharply, with the Commission anticipating a decrease of 32%. Growth in other markets will only partially offset this. Exports to South Korea, for example, are projected to increase by 53%. African swine fever continues to impact trade flows and market confidence.
Consumption and self-sufficiency level remain almost stable
Per capita pork consumption in the EU is expected to rise slightly to 33.2 kg in 2026, up from 33.0 kg the previous year. The self-sufficiency rate was 115.4% in 2025 and is projected to remain virtually unchanged at 115.2% in 2026. This means the EU is expected to continue producing more pork than it consumes.
