The global pork trade is undergoing a structural shift, with less influence from China and increasing diversification of destination markets. This is according to the World Pork Map 2026, produced by RaboBank, which identifies greater competition among major exporting countries, along with new challenges related to animal health, trade policies, and geopolitics.
One of the main changes is seen in China’s weight in international trade. While the country remains a major importer of pork and offal, its share of global imports fell from 43% in 2021 to 23% in 2025. The recovery of domestic production following the impact of African swine fever (ASF), along with a moderation in consumption growth, has reduced its influence on global trade flows. Meanwhile, Mexico has consolidated its position as the world’s leading importer of pork, excluding offal.
In this context, trade has shifted towards a more diversified and regional structure, with markets such as Mexico, the Philippines, and Vietnam gaining greater importance. In Southeast Asia, health challenges and limitations in domestic supply have sustained import demand, creating new opportunities for major exporting countries.
Competition is also reshaping supplier positioning. The European Union currently maintains its leading position in exports, although the gap with the United States has narrowed. Rabobank projects that the structural challenges facing the bloc—including stricter environmental and animal welfare requirements, as well as rising production costs—could favor the United States’ rise as the world’s leading exporter.
Brazil, for its part, has significantly strengthened its position and is now the world’s third-largest exporter, behind the European Union and the United States, having overtaken Canada. The country has also made progress in diversifying its export destinations in response to lower Chinese demand. The Philippines became its main export market, with shipments increasing by more than 30% during 2025, according to the report.
Another factor reshaping international trade is the evolution of health policies. Rabobank highlights the growing adoption of regionalization approaches by importing markets, allowing trade to continue from disease-free zones even when outbreaks occur in other areas of the same country. Agreements between China and Spain, Japan and France, and the Philippines and Poland are cited as examples of this trend.
African swine fever (ASF) remains a major risk factor for global trade, although its impact has shifted geographically. While its effects on trade have diminished in China, the disease continues to affect production and imports in countries like the Philippines and Vietnam, and poses an ongoing challenge for Europe.
These factors are compounded by trade and geopolitical tensions. Tariffs, health restrictions, and logistical disruptions are creating a more volatile environment and putting pressure on exporters’ profit margins.
In this new global landscape, Rabobank argues that competitiveness will depend less on the ability to concentrate on a single large market and more on a balanced management of destinations, risks, and product strategies. Market diversification, cost efficiency, differentiation, and the ability to secure and maintain sanitary access are thus becoming increasingly important for players in the pork sector.
