The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) again cut its projection for the country’s beef production in 2026 and 2027, while raising its forecast for imports for both years.
For 2026, it projected a nearly 4% drop in beef production, compared to the 2.7% decline it had anticipated in July. The adjustment was due to a slower expected slaughter rate for steers and heifers through the end of the year. The forecast for cow slaughter was also revised downward.
The USDA adjusted its forecast for beef imports in 2026 from 12.45% to 13.8%, “reflecting the continued strength in domestic demand and the availability of supply from Oceania.”
Beef production is expected to be marginally higher in 2027 than the previous year. With the upward adjustment in imports, external purchases are projected to fall by 0.9% compared to 2026.
The report lowered the consumption projection for this year from 59.4 to 58.9 pounds per capita and from 59 to 58.7 pounds for 2027.
According to USDA projections, in 2026 the share of imports in consumption will reach a maximum of 21.3%, dropping only slightly to 21% in 2027.
