The European Commission expects EU pork production to remain largely constant this year. While production is expected to stay stable, the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in Spain and the threat of Chinese anti-dumping duties are putting noticeable pressure on the European single market and global trade. At the same time, domestic consumption is stabilizing at a low level.
The European Commission forecasts relatively stable EU pork production for 2026 (+0.3%). This estimate is based on the largely stable sow population recorded in the December 2025 livestock census (+0.6%). While EU production was still 2.2% above the previous year’s level until April – supported by increases in key producing countries such as Denmark, Poland, France, and Spain – EU Commission experts anticipate a decline in production in the following months.
The Spanish market is under particular scrutiny. The outbreak of African swine fever in Spain at the end of 2025 led to a significant drop in pork prices across the EU. Because Spain’s export channels to key third countries are restricted due to the ASF outbreak in the Barcelona region, substantial quantities of meat are flooding the European single market, putting downward pressure on prices.
European exporters are facing increasing headwinds in global markets, which is why the Commission expects a slight decline of 0.5% in EU pork exports for the full year 2026. While exports remained relatively stable from January to April, as declining volumes to China were offset by increased shipments to South Korea and Vietnam, the EU Commission anticipates this stabilizing effect will weaken over the course of the year. This is due to the threat of Chinese anti-dumping duties, a recovery in Chinese domestic production, and aggressive price competition from exporters in Brazil and the US in Asia, all of which could hamper European exports.
On the demand side within the EU, Brussels experts forecast a slight increase in consumption of 0.4% for 2026. This stabilization is strongly price-driven: Due to declining producer and retail prices this year, price-conscious consumers in the food retail sector could increasingly opt for pork, thus switching from the more expensive beef, the production of which is shrinking further due to structural reasons.
