Rabobank anticipated that Brazil’s potential suspension of beef exports to the European Union would put pressure on prices in the bloc at a time when values began to fall due to lower demand in the second quarter.
A report from the commodity bank highlighted that Brazil accounted for 25% of EU beef imports in 2025.
In the beef segment, the suspension would mainly affect high-value markets, given that a large part of Brazil’s exported volume consists of high-priced cuts.
While the effect of the suspension could be “partially offset” by increased imports from alternative suppliers, “we expect upward pressure on prices.”
According to Rabobank, “Argentine and Uruguay are the candidates to fill the gap.” However, the quota system in China creates an “additional incentive for Argentine and Uruguay to redirect exports toward that market” given the smaller quotas granted to Australia and Brazil.
According to Rabobank, Australia could be “well-positioned” to increase its shipments to the European Union. However, its ability to compete on price is limited once it exceeds its quota ceiling with the bloc.
“Unacceptable”
Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture hardened its stance with the European Union, saying that the requirement for prior verification of antimicrobial control throughout the entire life cycle of animals is “unacceptable.”
And that this is unacceptable because it demands control over something “whose execution occurs progressively throughout the production cycle.”
