The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its projection for beef imports in 2026.
In its supply and demand report, the USDA revised upward its 2025 import forecast, which showed an 18% increase compared to the previous year.
For 2026, they anticipate a 3.35% increase in imports.
The USDA slightly adjusted its 2026 production forecast downward, now projecting a 0.7% decrease compared to the previous year. In 2025, production was 3.6% lower than the previous year.
The per capita consumption forecast was raised to 59.6 pounds, up from 59.3 pounds in 2025.
The USDA’s 2025 year-end data showed a 12% drop in exports and an 18% jump in imports. In the last two years, imports have almost doubled exports.
In 2025, the volume imported was more than twice that of exports, a ratio not seen since 2004-2005 when cases of mad cow disease occurred.
Projections for 2026 indicate that imports will represent 17.34% of the total beef supply, compared to 16.82% the previous year, reaching a new all-time high.
