GB pig prices saw a slight dip for the week ending 11 July, down 0.76p to stand at 177.97p/kg according to an AHDB analisys. This was 29.74p lower than the prior year. Prices have remained below the 180p/kg mark for the past six consecutive weeks. The SPP has now fallen by over 15p since the start of this year but down just over 3p since the beginning of Q2 (week ending 4 April).
The SPP remains over 20p below the five-year average and has been below this benchmark for sixteen consecutive weeks.
Estimated GB pig slaughter for the week ending 11 July totalled 161,600 head, a decrease of 1,900 head compared with the previous week. Clean pig slaughter remains higher than last year, up by 7%.
Average carcase weights remained above year-earlier levels at 90.55kg in the week ending 11 July, just 0.49kg heavier than the same week in 2025. Weights were down by 0.37kg compared with the previous week.
Average clean pig weights have now fallen by 5.21kg from the peak recorded at the beginning of January, and back by 4.23kg since the beginning of Q2 (week ending 4 April). This evidence suggests that backlogs have been worked through.
European pig prices have continued to soften in recent weeks. For the week ending 5 July, the EU Grade S reference pig price stood at 139.49p/kg, down 0.53p/kg on the week. This marks the fourth consecutive weekly decline in the EU reference price.
Price movements across member states were mixed. Spanish prices increased, up by 0.41p/kg, while Belgium recorded a decline of 1.05p/kg. Danish prices also fell by 3.61p/kg, driven by reports of European-wide oversupply and sluggish consumer demand.
On the other hand, UK Grade S reference prices saw a slight increase for the previous two weeks. For the week ending 5 July, the UK reference price stood at 184.52p/kg, up 0.57p/kg on the week.
As a result, the gap between UK and EU reference pig prices has grown to 45.03p/kg, an increase of 1.1p on the prior week. Although this is still 24.97p/kg lower than the peak differential recorded in mid-January.
Data would suggest that pig backlogs have largely cleared. Average pig weights have continued to ease, although recent periods of hot weather may continue to influence weights in the short term. High temperatures can reduce feed intake and growth rates, while recent reports of sow mortality during the last heatwave highlight the importance of effective heat management on farm. As temperatures remain elevated, producers can .
Domestic demand has remained a story of two halves. Total pig meat purchase volumes declined by 3.4% and spend fell by 2.7% over the 12 w/e 14 June, driven by lower purchases of processed products such as bacon, sausages and ham. Heightened consumer concern around ultra-processed foods (UPFs) may have impacted these categories. On the other hand, we saw primary pig meat performing well with purchase volumes increasing by 5.1% and spend up 4.8% year-on-year. Driven by mince increasing by 25.6% as shoppers look to substitute more expensive beef mince for everyday meals.
Seasonal demand is expected to remain a key watchpoint over the coming weeks. Warmer weather typically supports demand for barbecue products, while the World Cup may also have provided an additional boost to retail and foodservice pork consumption. However, prolonged periods of extreme heat could offset some of this seasonal uplift by reducing shopper footfall and limiting overall retail activity. The impact of these factors should become clearer as market data for the coming weeks is released.
Market conditions across Europe are also likely to influence UK prices. Lower pig prices in Germany are expected to place downward pressure on markets, while Spain continues to face an oversupply of pig meat as trade restrictions limit access to some international markets. Increasing use of cold storage may be an option to temporarily ease market pressure, but it is unlikely to resolve the underlying Spanish supply imbalance and could lead to further price pressure when stored product eventually re-enters the market.
Further ahead, the impact of processors serving notice on supply contracts earlier this year is potentially expected to become more apparent around October. If alternative procurement arrangements are not secured, some producers could face challenges in placing finished pigs, increasing disruption in the market.
Overall, while seasonal demand and improved processing capacity provide some support, abundant European supplies and continued pricing pressure suggest that any sustained improvement in the market is likely to remain gradual.
