USA

1% contraction in the US pig herd

Pork

Is the first decline in the national pig inventory registered for the past 6 years.

Posted on Jan 05 ,11:00

After six consecutive years of growth, the US pig herd contracted slightly in December, according to the latest figures from the USDA. As at 1 December, the national herd was 77.5 million head, down 1% from the same point last year. The September-November 2020 pig crop was down 1% from 2019 at 35 million head. Sows farrowing during this period totalled 3.16 million head, down 1% from 2019. The average number of pigs saved per litter was 11.05 for the September-November period, compared to 11.09 last year.
"This herd contraction may not be long-lived. Producers intend to have 3.12 million sows farrow from December to February 2021, 2% more than actually farrowed during the same period a year ago. Although, intended farrowings for March-May 2021 are down 1% from the same period in 2020.
The report appears to be in line with market expectations, and so may not drive much change in US pig prices in the short term. However, increased production later in the year might lead to price declines, unless demand, and perhaps export demand, in particular, is robust," commented Duncan Wyatt, AHDB Lead Analyst.
On the other hand, some of the players in the industry are expecting a larger drop in the number of pigs. "We believe the sow herd liquidation, significant PRRS and PED have cut supply even more than you expect seasonally. Lots of empty pig spaces are chasing fewer pigs. Results - price goes up. In our opinion even though lean hog futures have pushed back up, they are still undervalued relative to what’s coming. Fewer hogs year over year and higher prices.
The latest weekly sow slaughter of 69,699 is in our opinion, a sign of continued liquidation. If correct we will see continued lower hog numbers in the coming months", said Jim Long, CEO and President of Genesus Inc.

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