EU

1% increase in EU pig meat exports

Pork

Despite the shocks transmitted by Brexit, COVID and ASF, pork exports are expected to grow this year.

Posted on Sep 02 ,07:55

Shocks transmitted in the international markets by the COVID crisis, African swine fever in Germany and Brexit impacted EU pork exports evolution but a slight increase in volumes (1%) is still expected. Overall, EU pigmeat exports are expected to continue increasing in 2021 – albeit at a slower pace than in the last two years (+5%). EU pigmeat imports could increase by +1% in 2021. New ASF outbreaks in China are slowing down the rebuilding of the herd. Despite the fall of Chinese prices compared to
pre-COVID-19 levels, the Chinese market is still profitable for EU exporters. China should remain the main destination for EU pigmeat exports in 2021. China also imports from the US, and increasingly from Brazil where the OIE recognized late May 2 of the 3 biggest producer states as “free from FMD without vaccination.” While DE, one of the biggest EU pigmeat exporters, lost access to most Asian markets because of ASF, other EU exporters were able to fill the gap by increasing their exports.
They would probably continue to do so next year, as production is expected to increase in Belgium, Denmark, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, France and even Poland.
The increase of the EU pigmeat production is expected to slightly accelerate in 2021, with an annual growth of +1.7%. The steady trend towards heavier animals continues (+1 kg annually on average since 2016) and some slaughterings were transferred from 2020 to 2021, according to a short-term outlook released by the European Commission.
At the same time, the impact of Brexit is felt mainly in the UK as trade data shows. The impact of UK leaving the EU is lower on EU pigmeat exports to the UK (-17% in Q1 2021 year-on-year) than on imports from the UK (-52%) and is stronger on EU pigmeat trade than that of ASF.

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