15 consecutive weeks of decline for EU pig prices
For 15 consecutive weeks now, average pig prices in the EU market have dropped constantly. Over this time, an average of €30 has been lost by producers in the EU market, representing a decline of 18% compared with mid-June this year. As China has reduced demand for pork imports and Germany is still banned from other important markets in Asia due to ASF issues, prices have declined below the 5 years average. By the week ended 26 September, the average reference price had dropped to €136.08/100kg. Prices are now back to levels last seen in February, more than €5 below the same week last year, and about €45 below 2019 levels, according to a European Commission report.
"The strong Chinese demand that had been offering price support in previous years has weakened, and the outlook for this trade going forward is uncertain. It remains to be seen whether stronger Chinese pork production this year can be maintained, or whether culling due to disease concerns or poor profitability has offered a temporary extra supply boost.
The gap between the EU average reference price and the UK price has remained particularly wide since the end of August. The UK price was generally about €44/100kg higher throughout September, a level not seen since 2015. For some member states, the difference is even larger, including some that are major suppliers of UK pig meat imports. The latest Dutch price is only €118.45/100kg, €62 less than the UK average. EU product is currently particularly price-competitive compared to British pork, and this would be expected to exert further price pressure here," says Bethan Wilkins, Senior Analyst, AHDB.
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