5% decline in China's pork imports for 2022
China, the world’s largest pork market, imported 2.8M tonnes of pig meat worth $8B from January to August 2021, a recent report from IndexBox states. Compared to the same period a year earlier, the volume of imports remained nearly unchanged, while in value terms purchases grew by 3%. However, data offered by the General Administration of Customs show a downward trend for meat imports in the second half of 2021.
Pork supplies from the US dropped by 36% to 340K tonnes, while Spain and Brazil sharply boosted their exports to China. Against the same period of 2020, purchases from Spain increased by 70% to 900K tonnes or by 76% to $2.6B in value terms. Supplies from Brazil rose by 25% to 360K tonnes or 21% to $1.2B in monetary terms.
In 2022, China’s pork imports are projected to drop by 5% due to rising domestic pork production. The Chinese government is expected to support large pig farming companies to keep expanding their herds.
China’s Pork Imports Statistics - 2020
Pork imports into China soared from 2.0M tonnes in 2019 to 4.3M tonnes in 2020. In value terms, purchases skyrocketed from $4.5B to $11.9B. Spain (934K tonnes), the US (696K tonnes), and Brazil (481K tonnes) were the leading suppliers of pork to China, with a combined 49% share of total imports. In value terms, the largest pork suppliers to China were Spain ($2.7B), the US ($1.6B) and Brazil ($1.6B), with a combined 49% share of total supplies.
In 2020, the US recorded the highest shipment growth rate among the leading suppliers. Pork imports from America rose threefold in value terms. The average pork import price amounted to $2,761 per tonne in 2020, jumping by 22% against the previous year. Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplying countries. In 2020, the highest prices were recorded for prices from Brazil ($3,254 per tonne) and Denmark ($3,009 per tonne), while the costs for the US ($2,351 per tonne) and Canada ($2,369 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.
100% in self-sufficiency predicted
However, according to Jacek Strzelecki, a Polish market analyst, in 2022 China may reach 100% in pig meat self-sufficiency. "Pork production in China:
- 2021 96% self-sufficiency; 2022 100% self-sufficiency; 2023 102% self-sufficiency. Pig herd in China - forecast:
- 2022 - 504 million units;
- 2023 - 554 million units," said Mr. Strzelecki in a tweet. The effect will be felt by major players such as Brazil, Spain, the US and Canada.
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