A no-deal scenario puts Irish beef in direct competition with Brazilian products
Brazil could become a strong competitor against Ireland in the UK beef market in a no-deal Brexit scenario, according to an analysis of the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board. UK's beef consumption is around 1.2 million tonnes cwe (production plus imports, minus exports), with a rate of self-sufficiency around 80%, meaning that the country is relying on imports to cover the domestic demand.
"In 2018, 73% of UK beef imports came from Ireland, with the vast majority of the rest being from other EU countries, with free access to the UK market. In a no deal scenario, countries like Brazil and Argentina will have equal access to the UK beef market. Until now they were priced out by the EU external tariff policy, making their beef uncompetitive. However, South American countries have a significantly lower cost of production than the UK and Ireland. As such their beef could be an attractive option for importers, especially those supplying the food service sector where provenance is not always prioritised as highly as it is in the retail sector,", said Tom Forshaw, AHDB analyst - red meat.
Much more, shipping costs across the Atlantic stand around 20 euro cents/kg, enough to keep the price competitive and to affect both the Irish export price and the UK domestic price.
"Looking at the price of frozen boneless cuts delivered in 2018, the Brazilian price delivered into the UK was similar to the Irish price. These products constitute the vast majority of Brazilian exports. It is possible that Brazil is deliberately pricing just below Irish beef in order to maximise the returns on its current guaranteed volume quota. In a no deal scenario, when Brazil could be competing directly with Irish beef for the tariff-free quota and considering the lower cost of production in Brazil, it is feasible to suggest that Brazilian exporters have room to further reduce their price," added Forshaw.
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