AHDB: Meat and meat-free performance in the out-of-home market
The dominance of MFP is driven by the combination of a higher proportion of individuals buying these dishes OOH in the past year (89.5% penetration for MFP dishes versus 71.6% for meat-free dishes) and those individuals buying the category more often (average 1.4 purchases per week for MFP dishes versus just over once per month for meat-free dishes).
According to Kantar, spend on meat-free dishes OOH has grown slightly behind total OOH spend, but ahead of fish, chicken and pork. Conversely, spend on beef and lamb OOH has outpaced the market.
Average spend on a meat-free trip is £5.83 versus £8.64 for MFP, showing that consumers are prepared to pay more for dishes including meat out-of-home compared to meat-free.
Although growth continues for meat-free dishes, repeat purchase of these dishes is only 67%, compared to 98% for MFP dishes suggesting that consumers are more loyal to MFP dishes, supported by high levels of reported enjoyment and taste fulfilment (Kantar OOH 52 w/e 1 September 2024).
Vegetarian versus Plant-based dishes
Diving into meat-free offerings, we see a different picture for vegetarian dishes versus plant based dishes. Spend on vegetarian dishes has grown 33.6% in the past year, while plant based dishes show a year-on-year decline of 13.8%.
This difference in performance is likely to be driven by price. Whilst vegetarian OOH dishes have an average price per pack of £5.41, competitive versus meat dishes, plant-based dishes show a higher average price per pack of £7.48 - potentially a barrier to entry.
Therefore, the main area of risk for the meat category, in the OOH market, isn’t meat alternatives, but rather dishes that are vegetarian by nature, such as cheese sandwiches and meat-free pizzas.
Deep dive into OOH dishes
Meat-centred meals (e.g. steak and chips, mixed grill, sausages and mash etc), sandwiches and burgers have the highest level of spend for MFP, contributing 46% of total OOH food spend in the past year.
Sandwiches also have the highest level of spend for meat-free dishes, accounting for 25% of meat-free spend out of home. Although meat-free sandwiches are key to the meat-free market, 80% of all sandwiches are MFP based, versus only 20% meat-free.
99% of all burgers sold out of home are MFP based, with a penetration of 63.1%. In contrast, meat-free burgers struggle with only 5.7% penetration demonstrating the continuing ability for specific types of dishes to be owned by MFP.
Mexican and pizza dishes show the highest share of meat-free volumes, although still dominated by meat, highlighting cuisine opportunities to remind consumers about the taste benefit of incorporating meat.
It is important to remember that some meat-free dishes are classic favourites like Cheese Toasties, whose purchase is likely to be driven through familiarity and enjoyment rather than through a conscious meat-free choice.
Channel focus
Although the highest level of spend for meat-free dishes goes through Quick Service Retail and Full Service Restaurants (growing at 6.1% and 6.4% respectively year on year), higher absolute growth has been seen in Grocery Multiples (23%), Cafes (25%) and Coffee Shops (19%), potentially reflecting the need for consumers to save money and trade down to cheaper channels. This broader spread of meat-free offerings across channels means that MFP need to ensure that it continues to play across channels and push value in MFP focused meals.
Snacking (such as crisps and peanuts) have grown ahead of the market highlighting an opportunity for MFP to play more strongly in the snacking world.
Over 55-year-olds, with a higher disposable income, are responsible for the largest share of OOH spend across MFP, meat-free and snacking dishes. However, we see 35–54-year-olds showing a greater share of spend for meat-free dishes versus MFP, and under 25-year-olds showing a lower share of spend for meat-free versus MFP. Under 25-year-olds are particularly strong in snacking, showing that if MFP increased its presence in the snacking world this could enable MFP to grow in this age group out of home.
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