AHDB: Pig meat trade down month on month in June
Shipments to the EU fell by 4.2% (500 tonnes) in June to total 10,600 tonnes. The fall is a result of lower volumes being sent to Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands. EU pig prices have been flattening lately whilst UK prices are still climbing, therefore it is likely that as EU pork becomes more competitively priced compared to the UK, demand for UK pork will come under pressure.
The main driver for reduced exports in June is the loss of volume shipped to China. Exports to China fell 33% (2,000 tonnes) from May, a drop of 41% (2,800 tonnes) compared to June 2021. Following the ASF outbreak, China has been reporting a steady head count for breeding sows recently, with increased productivity meaning domestic production has been increasing.
Imports of pig meat (excluding offal) to the UK totalled 62,700 tonnes in June, a decline of 6% (4,100 tonnes) from May and a 1% (500 tonnes) increase compared to June last year. This brings the year to date (Jan-Jun) total to 413,200 tonnes, up 24% (81,000 tonnes) compared to 2021 (which saw significant trade disruption due to Brexit) and closer to volumes reported in 2019.
Despite more competitive pricing of EU pig meat, loss of volume is to be expected as according to the latest EU short term outlook, production of pig meat in the EU is forecast to decline 5% in 2022 and exports to fall 10%. Volumes from the Netherlands and Ireland saw the largest fall month on month, down 1,500 tonnes and 1,100 tonnes respectively. The largest year on year declines have been seen from Belgium, Denmark and Poland, all exporting between 1,400 -1,900 tonnes less in June this year compared to June last year.
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