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AHDB: Predictions for Christmas food trends 2024

This season, we can see positivity from UK consumers returning as 40% of consumers think that this Christmas will be more enjoyable than 2023 (Mintel, September 2024) and consumer confidence rising three points in November (GFK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NiM, November 2024).

Posted on Dec 08 ,00:10

The cost-of-living crisis has dominated Christmas predictions for the past two years, and while the number of consumers concerned about the cost-of-living crisis has fallen this Christmas, 77% of consumers remain concerned (Two Ears One Mouth, November 2024).

As a result, we see polarised spending ability, with more affluent consumers open to increasing their spending, middle-income households being cautious, and lower-income households feeling squeezed.

AHDB predictions for the 2024 Christmas period:

• Retail demand will outstrip 2023 as 20% claim they will eat out of home less this December with 90% of consumers eating in this Christmas Day either at home or at the home of a family member or friend (YouGov/AHDB Pulse November 2024). We also see 41% of consumers saying they plan to spend what they want this Christmas (IGD November 2024). The polarised spending ability will drive share for premium retailers, local butchers and farm shops as well as discounters. A total of 38% of consumers claim that good value for money will be important to them for Christmas meat purchases; therefore, we predict promotions will be key to driving share. However, a similar number (37%) claim high quality is key – therefore we predict some trade up in tiers (You Gov/AHDB Pulse November 2024). The growing need for convenience also means that online will be an important channel, with 34% of shoppers using online retailers more this Christmas than they have in previous years (IGD November 2024). As we see that 43% of consumers are planning to do their Christmas shopping in one big hit (IGD October 2024), Sunday 22 and Monday 23 December are likely to be the biggest shopping days for Christmas food.
• Meat in retail will grow in line with the market, with 17% of consumers claiming that they will spend more on meat this Christmas, outweighing the number of those who claim they are going to spend less (13%) (YouGov/AHDB Pulse November 2024). The study also showed that turkey remains the most popular meat option for Christmas Day, followed by gammon/ham and beef. In total, 23% of consumers plan to buy two meat options for the Christmas meal, and 10% plan to buy three meat options, with turkey and gammon/ham or turkey and beef being the most common combinations. Mixed roasts/bird in bird offerings show lower traction with only 3% of consumers claiming they are going to purchase them for Christmas Day. Meat that is easy to prepare and cook is important for 26% of consumers, indicating that ready-to-cook options will work well this year (YouGov/AHDB Pulse November 2024). In terms of the rest of the Christmas plate, roast potatoes are the most popular element, but 58% of consumers say that pigs in blankets are essential – as important to consumers as stuffing, Brussel sprouts and Yorkshire puddings (Two Ears One Mouth, November 2024).

• One in four claim that they will use an air fryer to cook all or part of the Christmas meal. Of those who plan to use an air fryer, 57% aim to cook the meat (of all joint types), 53% the roast potatoes and 46% the pigs in blankets in the air fryer.

• Spotlighting desserts, dairy will also do well, with plain cream, custard and ice-cream seen as essential to accompany traditional Christmas pudding or alternatives such as sticky toffee pudding. Among those preferring flavoured creams or butters, brandy comes out on top (Two Ears One Mouth, November 2024). A total of 38% of consumers think that a cheese board is key to festive celebrations, with brie, Cheddar and Blue Stilton being the most preferred cheese varieties to feature (Two Ears One Mouth, November 2024).
• While just 5% of consumers are planning on eating out on Christmas Day, AHDB predicts an uplift in spend out of home in line with previous years, due to people spending more on meat-centred dishes (e.g. roasts) and seasonal offerings (e.g. hot milk-based drinks) (Kantar OOH December vs Average month 2022, 2023). For consumers who were planning on eating out on Christmas Day, red meats are even more popular than for consumers planning to eat in home, potentially because some people feel less confident cooking these joints and would rather leave this job to a professional (YouGov/AHDB Pulse November 2024). Our research shows that dessert choices out-of-home (OOH) are not so traditional, with cheesecake ranking up there with Christmas pudding for a Christmas Day dessert this year and 1 in 4 consumers wanting cheese and biscuits (YouGov/AHDB Pulse November 2024).

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