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AHDB: Rising prices for beef in dining-out market forecast to impact consumer demand

Rising beef prices have out-striped inflation, driven by a constrained supply. As a general rule, as prices rise, demand from consumers falls, and in this article, AHDB explores the potential impact of further beef price increases within the dining-out market, looking at both total beef and key beef dishes.

Posted on Aug 06 ,00:25

In April 2025, consumer confidence fell to its lowest point since November 2023, driven by concerns around inflation, rising prices and global economics (GFK Consumer Confidence, April 2025)

Within the out-of-home market, this uncertainty has led to a -1.9% reduction year-on-year in the number of out-of-home occasions, including dining out, takeaways and buying to eat on the go (Worldpanel by Numerator UK OOH, 52 w/e 20 April 2025).

With 176.9m out-of-home occasions containing beef (Worldpanel by Numerator UK OOH, 12 w/e 20 April 2025), this protein is a key part of the market, representing 12% of spend and 7% of dishes across total out-of-home food (Worldpanel by Numerator UK OOH, 52 w/e 20 April 2025).

Over the past five years, average prices per dish for beef out-of-home have been steadily increasing, with prices now averaging over £6 per dish.

How have consumers previously reacted to out-of-home beef price rises?

In November 2024, average prices for beef rose 12.8% year-on-year, the highest price increase in 2024, pushing average prices to £6.45 (Worldpanel by Numerator UK OOH 52 w/e 3 November 2024). This February, average prices increased again by 12.1% (Worldpanel by Numerator UK OOH 52 w/e 23 February 2025). With these price rises in play, we saw consumers reacting in three different ways:

1. Consumers reduced the number of beef dishes they purchased within an occasion (e.g. a couple who typically visit a restaurant and order two beef steaks changed to ordering only one beef steak, with one person switching to a cheaper option on the menu, e.g. a cheaper protein like pork or a meat/fish/poultry-free option).
2. Consumers reduced the frequency at which they purchased beef dishes (e.g. a family who typically purchase beef burgers from a quick service restaurant once every four weeks changed to purchasing once every six weeks).
3. Consumers turned away from beef dishes altogether.

How do we predict consumers will react in the future for similar out-of-home beef price rises?

Understanding the patterns of consumer behaviour in the past allows us to predict potential behaviour changes as beef prices continue to rise. Note that there are many different factors that can impact purchase behaviour, including promotions and availability through menu changes. The predictions shown in this article are based on the assumption that all other factors remain equal.

Total beef

Based on a 12.8% price rise applied to 52 w/e 20 April 2025 data, predictions show that average beef dish prices will rise +£0.84p, taking the average price per dish to over £7 (Worldpanel by Numerator UK OOH).

As a result of this price increase, 230K consumers are predicted to turn away from beef dishes out-of-home altogether. Consumers who continue to purchase beef dishes are predicted to reduce the number of beef dishes by occasion by -0.1 dish per occasion on average and reduce the frequency of beef dish occasions by -1.2 occasions per year on average.

The consequence of these consumer behaviour changes would result in a -5% decline in the number of beef dishes sold out-of-home (Worldpanel by Numerator UK OOH). This would equate to an estimated loss of approximately 5,100 tonnes of beef, assuming an equal 5% decline on all beef offerings (forecast based on AHDB estimates from Worldpanel by Numerator UK OOH data).

In summary, consumers are responding to price rises of beef in different ways out-of-home: some are reducing their frequency, and others are trading down to beef dishes in cheaper channels or trading out of beef into a cheaper protein. The predictions shown in this article are based on the assumption that all other factors that drive consumer behaviour (e.g. promotions, menu changes) remain equal. Rising beef prices are likely to result in a decline in beef volumes sold out-of-home, but the impact will vary depending on channel and dish.

Recommendations

Foodservice operators could minimise inflationary sales losses by:

• Providing convenient value for money beef options in lower price channels, such as bakery, salad and sandwich outlets, to ensure beef remains accessible for all consumers – utilising promotional mechanics such as meal deals
• Offering promotions on premium beef dishes in full-service restaurants delivering to taste, experience and treating occasions. Loyalty rewards are one way to do this

The wider supply chain could minimise inflationary sales losses by: 

• Communicating red meat quality, taste and reputational credentials on menus or via advertising. AHDB’s Let's Eat Balanced consumer campaign highlights the taste and nutritional benefits of British beef
• Working to ensuring robustness in domestic supplies as this will help to stabilise beef inflation for consumers and support  demand across the range of beef cuts. This is an area where AHDB strives to support farmers to be more efficient, profitable and resilient, through our work in areas such as genetic evaluations, animal health and welfare, and knowledge exchange. In addition, we support profitability across the whole supply chain through domestic marketing, export market development and the provision of evidence and insight in areas such as market intelligence

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