ASF puts pressure on the German swine sector
Since the beginning of the ASF outbreak in Germany, in September last year, the country has lost access to some of the largest markets around the world, such as China, the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, or Vietnam. Volumes of 250,000 to 350,000 have been pushed in the EU market but the long-lasting domination of the German swine sector within Europe has been lost. Spain is currently replacing Germany but other countries may benefit as well from this situation, according to a report from Rabobank.
"The aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, long-term structural issues, and changes in global demand also weigh on the pork market. Germany’s pork supply chain has been through many challenges in the past, and while things are clearly different this time, we expect the resilience that the pork industry has shown in the past will help it to weather the worst of this storm. The situation in Germany has broader implications for the rest of Europe. We highlight two aspects that are sometimes overlooked when considering what the ASF outbreak in Germany has meant. The first is that Germany lost its position as the leading pork producer and exporter in Europe, creating opportunities for other pork-producing countries. The second is that pork supply chains in western Europe can draw lessons from Germany’s experiences," said Eva Gocsik, Animal Protein Analyst at Rabobank.
So far, it becomes clear that lower exports have led to oversupply, and the resulting low prices are accelerating the rationalization of the production base. That could trigger a change in the power base of European pork. It could cement the role of Spain as the largest pork producer, but it could also open up opportunities for other second-tier producing countries, such as Denmark and the Netherlands, which have long stood in Germany’s shadow, Ms. Gocsik added.
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