Argentine will increase its beef exports in 2026
Traders surveyed in the report noted that strong external demand, rising prices, and geopolitical changes could benefit Argentine exports.
China is expected to remain the top destination by far in 2026, as it has been since 2015. Its market share between 2021 and 2024 fluctuated between 63% and 70% of the total (excluding bone-in and boneless meat exports), but has recently shown a decline.
In the first seven months of 2025, exports to China accounted for only 56% of the total, as larger volumes of similar beef cuts were sent to the United States and Israel.
Exports to China in 2026 will largely depend on two factors. First, the final decision made by the Chinese government regarding its ongoing antidumping investigation into beef imports, expected by the end of November. And second, the evolution of US beef imports after the US increased import tariffs on most products by 50% (10% + 40%), directly impacting US beef exports.
"As long as this level of tariffs persists, it is highly likely that the United States will not import Brazilian beef and will instead purchase larger volumes of beef from other sources, such as Argentina", the USDA report stated.
Local meat exporters are seeing growing demand for grain-fed beef from their main customers, prioritizing greater marbling and its close correlation with higher-quality meat.
Production. Argentine beef production in 2026 is forecast to reach 3.2 million tons (carcass weight equivalent, or CWE), virtually unchanged from 2022. Slaughter is anticipated to decline slightly, to 13.7 million head, but with a slightly higher average carcass weight of 234 kilos. Since 2018, slaughter has fluctuated between 13 and 14 million head per year, with calf production between 14.5 and 15 million head per year. Argentine calf production is fairly stable, which, combined with a very low slaughter weight, limits its beef production and the potential for increased exports.
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