Beef retail demand continues to suffer as inflation soars
For total beef in retail, average price per volume has increased +15% year-on-year – the highest increase seen in the last two years. This has resulted in a -7.5% volume decline, equivalent to -9,460 tonnes (Worldpanel by Numerator UK, 12 w/e 10 August 2025).
Alongside rising average prices, shares of volumes sold on promotion for total beef have declined -5.6% year-on-year, indicating that consumers have less opportunity to manage their spend through promotions. Some consumers are switching from mainstream stores to discounter stores to help manage their spend on beef, with discounters seeing a slower decline in total beef volumes (-5.4% year-on-year) (Worldpanel by Numerator UK, 12 w/e 10 August 2025).
Frozen beef, which typically has a lower average price per kg than chilled beef, is showing a modest +0.1% volume growth, suggesting that consumers are starting to turn to frozen offerings to manage their spend. This is particularly evident for beef burgers, where frozen volumes have grown +8.8%, in contrast to chilled volumes which have declined -12.9% (average price per kg of £7.59 and £9.49 respectively) (Worldpanel by Numerator UK, 12 w/e 10 August 2025).
Beef mince
Focusing on mince, latest period data shows a 26.3% increase in average price per volume, with a corresponding -6.5% decline in volume (Worldpanel by Numerator UK, 12 w/e 10 August 2025). Trends over the past five months suggest that shopper behaviour has changed as inflation has increased. In May and June, beef mince was losing shoppers as they dropped it from their beef repertoire or switched to cheaper proteins.
In July and August, those beef mince shoppers that remained were also seen to buy less volume of beef mince (e.g. moving from 750 g or 1000 g packs to 500 g packs), attempting to stretch the volume further in their everyday meals.
In August, the majority of switching from beef mince went into primary chicken, although there was also a rise in switching to pork mince, suggesting that consumers are prepared to use other minced proteins within mince-based meals (Worldpanel by Numerator UK, 12 w/e 10 August 2025).
Economy-tier beef mince, although only 4.9% of total beef mince, is showing volume growth (+4%), suggesting that consumers are prepared to down trade tiers to help manage their spend (Worldpanel by Numerator UK, 12 w/e 10 August 2025).
Beef steak
For beef steak, the latest period data shows a 23% increase in average price per volume (equating to an average price per volume of £21.49), with a corresponding -12.8% decline in volume (Worldpanel by Numerator UK, 12 w/e 10 August 2025).
As prices have risen, consumers have dropped steak from their beef repertoire, with switching also seen to a range of different proteins and cuts, including primary chicken, pork steaks and sliced cooked meat, or downtrading to beef burgers.
Beef roasting joints
For beef roasting joints, the latest period data shows a 15.6% increase in average price per volume, with a corresponding -25.7% decline in volume (Worldpanel by Numerator UK, 12 w/e 10 August 2025). As prices have risen, consumers have dropped roasting joints from their beef repertoire.
Switching behaviour is also seen, with consumers switching predominantly to primary chicken – either whole chickens or chicken breasts/wings/legs/thighs. This potentially suggests that some consumers retain the need for a roast meal utilising whole chickens, while other consumers are changing not only the protein they consume but the type of meals they are preparing.
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