Brazil expects a year 2020 high in production and exports
Driven by increased demand for meat in the Chinese market, Brazil's poultry and pork sectors have increased their production and exports share in 2019. The demand is expected to remain high in 2020, commented Francisco Turra, president of the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA) and the executive director of the entity, Ricardo Santin.
"We have to celebrate. After four difficult years, we have reacted and are closing 2019 higher. In December 2018, for example, we were full of doubts. We had registered fall in production, export and consumption. Today we see that we had a different, better year of stabilization. The new fact for us was the strong entry into China, which increased the marketing of chicken meat by 28% and accounted for 14% of our sales. Regarding pork, the increase in Brazilian exports to China was 51," said the president of ABPA.
The ASF situation in China is expected to have effects on long-term so the outlook for the next 12 months remains positive for the sector, added Mr. Santin. "The signals we get from China show that the Chinese food security crisis should last. We are forecasting an increase in production because spaces will be opened for commercialization across Asia. We will seek to strengthen partners and open new export spaces," he said.
The expectation of the entity is to close 2019 with a 2.3% increase in chicken meat production, from 12.85 million tons in 2018 to 13.15 million tons this year. Pulled by China, exports should rise by 2.4% and reach 4.2 million tons by the end of the year. Domestic consumption, likewise, has been growing: it will go from 41.7 tons to 42.6 tons - a 2.2% change.
Projections for pork are optimistic. Production is expected to rise by 1% to 2.5% and may exceed 3.97 million tonnes by 2018 and reach 4.1 million tonnes by the end of 2019. But the most promising news comes from exports: This year should end with a 14.5% increase in shipped meat. The main destination is China, which accounts for 32.7% of sales volume. On the other hand, per capita consumption will shrink by 1% to 2%.
Egg production could end the year with 49 billion units produced - a 10% increase from the 44.48 billion of 2018. A significant part of this production is directed to the domestic market. This is because per capita consumption is expected to grow by 9% by the end of 2019, rising from 212 units to 230 units per inhabitant.
In revenue, chicken meat exports from January to November 2019 had a positive variation of 6.1% over the same period last year. The export balance rose from $5.99 billion in 2018 to $6.36 billion in 2019. Only Asia accounts for 34.3% of Brazilian exports. China emerges as the largest buyer with 14% of the share, followed by Saudi Arabia with 11% and Japan with 10%.
Pork exports generated $1.4 billion in revenue in 2019 between January and November 2019 and grew 27.9%. The values exceeded the $1.1 billion traded last year. China remains the main destination and accounts for 32.7% of overseas sales, followed by Hong Kong with 21.6% and Chile with 6.1%.
Estimates for 2020 are even better. Next year should record growth in chicken meat production between 4% and 5%. Exports are also expected to increase by 3% to 6%. For pork, production should rise and reach around 4.2 million tons. Exports, according to ABPA, tend to repeat this year's performance and range from 15% to 20%.
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