Brexit concerning for New Zealand red meat exporters
While the UK and EU are currently negotiating a trade deal that will apply after departure date, at the time of writing, the outcome did not look promising. The risk of a “hard Brexit” was growing in probability. A “hard Brexit” would leave the UK with no preferential trade access to the EU. For New Zealand, the relevance of this will be the UK’s loss of free trade access to the continental EU for UK sheepmeat exports. While the UK is seeking new trade avenues with other countries, the outcome of these are long-term. In the short-term, a “hard Brexit” may result in a decline in demand for New Zealand sheepmeat exports to the UK as domestic product saturates the market.
New Zealand would be further impacted by a decision from the EU and UK, as part of the Brexit process, to split New Zealand's current sheepmeat and goat meat tariff-rate quota (TRQ) access equally between the UK and EU. Currently, the TRQ applies to the two markets combined. Splitting the TRQ would result in the loss of flexibility for New Zealand exporters to shift sheepmeat between the two markets in response to changing demand and price trends. The impact of this will be even more pronounced if UK sheepmeat exports lose preferential access to the EU, and the UK domestic market becomes oversupplied.
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