Cattle supply strong, but herd is easing
The report also notes that the conflict involving Iran has added a layer of uncertainty to the 2026 outlook. While it is too early to assess the full implications for the cattle sector, any prolonged disruption could affect the industry’s operating environment through higher input costs, freight pressure and broader supply chain risks. MLA notes these potential impacts were not incorporated into the forecast, as the conflict was in its early stages when the projections were finalised.
MLA forecasts the national herd at 30.783 million head in 2026, down 1% year-on-year (YoY) but still historically large. This reflects a cattle cycle that has remained more resilient than many expected, supported by favourable northern seasonal conditions, productivity gains, herd composition and the evolving dynamics of production systems.
Slaughter lifts while herd edges lower
Supported by strong global demand and continued cattle availability – particularly from northern regions – cattle slaughter is forecast to rise 1.9% to 9.45 million head in 2026. This marks the highest annual slaughter since 1978, surpassing last year’s throughput.
In practical terms, processors are likely to run at extremely high processing capacity over the coming year, even as herd pressure gradually builds in the background.
Beef production is forecast to increase 4% to a record 2.9 million tonnes carcase weight (cwt). Average carcase weights are expected to ease slightly, from 310kg to 307.5kg, as a larger share of grassfed cattle enter slaughter. Even so, the lift in slaughter is expected to more than offset the decline in weights, pushing production to a new high.
Beef exports are forecast to reach a record 2.3 million tonnes carcase weight in 2026. Tight global beef supply – particularly in the United States – continues to support demand for Australian beef across international markets. Offshore demand remains a key factor in absorbing large domestic production volumes.
Seasonal conditions still matter
Domestic seasonal conditions remain mixed. Strong rainfall and feed conditions across northern Australia have supported breeder regions, underpinning cattle availability. In contrast, despite some recent rainfall, parts of southern Australia are still contending with prolonged dry conditions.
The outlook suggests the market should remain supported through 2026, but conditions later in the year will be important. While the herd is still forecast to remain above 30 million head, supply is expected to tighten more noticeably from 2027 as sustained high turn-off reduces the available cattle pool.
For producers, the immediate signal is that supply remains strong and processor demand continues to be supported by export markets. The larger watchpoint is how long that balance can be maintained if seasonal conditions become less supportive and herd rebuilding is delayed.
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