China and Vietnam to recover on pork production
Global animal protein trade continues to create areas of opportunity and risk, with China being the biggest of many areas of uncertainty in global trade, warns Rabobank. "In 2021, we anticipate production growth in most regions, with the biggest change taking place in Asia, where the impacts of African swine fever (ASF) are fading. Pork is expected to lead that growth – with a gradual recovery process, as ASF is still active. Poultry and aquaculture are also forecast to grow, followed by beef," says the forecast. Pork production is expected to increase in China and Vietnam, as both countries have struggled to rebuild their nation swine inventory this year. However, in the Philippines, the recovery will be constrained, which makes it a valuable market for pork exporters.
Poultry will also have a strong year in China and the EU, given the recovery of the foodservice sector expected in these markets. "Animal protein has been disrupted by Covid-19 in 2020, largely due to restrictions in processing plants, to global trade, and distribution through foodservice channels. In 2021, the focus will be on recovery, with foodservice recovery, labor availability and costs and supply chain transformations being the major issues," says the report.
Brazil is to experience production growth for all species in 2021, but this will be more modest than in recent years. Exports will drive production, given soft domestic demand. In North America, there will be no significant changes in production figures, except for beef, based on post-Covid-19 adjustments. All species will depend on strength in export flows in order to balance domestic demand.
In the Pacific area, tight livestock inventories in Australia will support prices and constrain production. New Zealand’s production outlook is familiar: a slight rise in beef and a slight fall in sheepmeat.
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