China can never get rid of ASF, says US analysts
China's ASF outbreaks could be the "wake up call" for the global pork industry, says one of the analysts of Canadian Genesus genetics company. Allan Bentley, Genesus Sales representative for North America, is skeptical regarding the number of outbreaks reported by Chinese authorities by now and, considering the high density of pig farms in the country, that could really be bad news.
"After the first case was reported, I surmised there would be more cases reported very quickly. I believe China has reported 18 cases, so if they are admitting to that I would guess it is closer to 180 cases. These cases are spread over a 2,000 km area and millions of swine in between each unit that reported an outbreak. The dense population of swine in China leads me to the conclusion they will never get rid of this disease", explains Bentley.
At the same time, an uncontained spreading of the virus in South Asia could have effects on the global pig market and even reconsider the position of Beijing regarding the trade dispute with the US. "We all know the numbers involved with China’s hog production and their appetite for pork. If they want to feed their people, I would think they would want to get the trade dispute with President Trump resolved quickly", added Allan Bentley.
His opinion is also shared by Dr RC Ebert, Pleasant Hill Animal Clinic, who, at the same time, signals the danger hidden for the hog industry in North America. "Can China and the other SE Asia countries control ASF? Their biosecurity is questionable. What effects will a decline in their production have on our markets? These and other questions remain to a be seen.
Biosecurity is the only protection we have. No products from China or SE Asia should be used. Most of our disinfectants will work if used correctly", he said.
Indeed, the US imports a large volume of vitamins and feed ingredients from China and that could be an issue if the virus can stay alive in the feed.
The development of ASF crisis in China, the EU or ex-Soviet states like Russia, Ukraine or Belarus makes "PED and PRRS look like wimps! It can be carried by feed, water, all bodily secretions, most processed meats, manure etc. There is no vaccine or treatment at this time. Clinically pigs range from sudden death to subacute infections", mentions the Genesus report. At this time, China holds more than 50% of global pig population and a large wipeout of its herd will have unknown consequences on the global trade and in the global pork market.
(Photo source: Flickr/rawdonfox)
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