China to revive its pork industry in 5 years
For the next 10 years, global pork production is to grow by 16% and the ASF crisis in China may end in the next 5 or 6 years, according to the latest outlook released by FAO/OECD. "Pig meat production is expected to rise by about 16% over the decade overall. Production in China is projected to return to 2017 levels in 2025/2026 and continue steady growth over the remainder of the period. The recovery from African Swine Fever in Asian countries is responsible for much of the pig meat production growth forecast. Production is also expected to rise in Brazil and the US, however a 3% decline is projected for the EU, due to a mix of environmental and public concerns," commented Bethan Wilkins, Senior Analyst - Red Meat at AHDB.
Prices are to remain elevated but will not reach the peak seen in 2019. Increasing supplies, and the extent of ongoing Chinese import demand, will be influential in shaping this trend. "Looking at global trade, Chinese pork imports remain above 2017 levels throughout the outlook period. However, 2020 is the peak, with demand subsequently falling back and 2029 levels are 36% down on 2019. This means global import demand also falls in the first part of the outlook period. There is some uplift again from 2027, with growth from Latin America and Africa," added Mrs Wilkins.
From the consumption perspective, a major shift is going to be seen in the EU, where pig meat is expected to be replaced by poultry, which is cheaper and perceived to be healthier.
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