China to see a change in meat consumption habits
The animal protein market in China is going to experience some important changes over the next years, according to a GIRA study. Pork consumption, already in decline from the pre-ASF levels, is going to go down even further. The impact of ASF on Chinese consumer diets has varied depending on their socio-economic status. "Anecdotal evidence suggests that lower-income consumers substituted pork with fish, eggs, poultry and soy-based products such as bean curd, while higher-income consumers have increased consumption of a variety of proteins such as red meat, seafood and other premium products," said an MLA market review.
GIRA has postulated that even after China’s pork industry fully recovers, Chinese consumers will continue to eat less pork in favour of other proteins, with annual per capita consumption unlikely to revert to the pre-ASF peak in 2014 of 41.7kg per person. As an example, per capita fish consumption in China has jumped from 41.1 kg in 2015 to 43.1 kg last year and is expected to reach 45.7 kilos in 2025. For the next 5 years, beef consumption may increase by 10% from 7 kilograms per person to 7.7 kg along with offal (2.2 kg to 2.8 kg). Poultry consumption is expected to remain steady at 16.7 kg for the next 5 years, while pork will increase from 23.2 kilos reported last year to 33.9 kg but still below 40.5 kilos per person reported five years ago.
For this year, the EU, the US, Canada and Brazil are likely to remain key pork suppliers to China. Nevertheless, this could change over the next 2 years if the Asian country is able to contain the spread of the ASF virus.
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