China to set a record in pork imports
China will increase the pork imports in the following years, with a peak of 4.6 million tonnes predicted for 2020, according to Rabobank estimates. An outlook presented last week by the bank shows that even this year a record will be set in pork imports that are expected to be between 3.1 and 3.3 million tonnes due to a dramatic decrease in the country's swine inventory and pork production.
The African Swine Fever (ASF) situation is going to be present for at least 5 years, reducing the chance for a rapid recovery in pork production.
Pork import levels are going to be high between 2021-2025 reaching at least 3 million tonnes per year, according to the analysis. For now, China pork imports are accounting for 25% in global pork trade but for next year a decrease of 15% in Chinese pork production will push the imports higher than ever, says the report. The bank also believes that a consolidation process will occur in China's pig sector until 2025, with small farms accounting for only 30% of the production, while large farms with more than 10,000 head will dominate the market.