China will switch from pork to beef
The continued spread of African Swine Fever across China will influence the global trade of beef in the following months, says Angus Gidley-Baird, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein, Rabobank.
At the beginning of December, the number of reported ASF outbreaks in China reached 84, in 21 provinces of the country. Most cases are in small-sized farms, but several were from larger-scale farms. Given the sheer size of production and the fragmented structure, it will be a great challenge for China to control the disease spreading in the coming year.
"A decline in China’s pork production is clear. Pork consumption is also expected to drop, giving rise to increases in the consumption and import of other animal proteins, including eggs, poultry, beef, mutton, and seafood", explained the analyst.
Pork is, by far, the most consumed meat in China but new trends have emerged in this market in the last couple of month, including a higher rate of beef consumption in larger cities that are situated in provinces affected by the virus.
Although beef is not a major substitute for pork, the pork supply shortage in China will likely also push up beef consumption. Given China is already an important and growing importer of beef, depending on how pork production and prices develop, there could be increased demand from China for beef imports over the coming months, according to the analysis.
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