China's pork shortage to last another year or two - GIRA analyst
Pork demand from China will continue to increase in the next two year, said Richard Herzfelder, senior advisor at GIRA Consultancy & Research, in an interview for CNBC.
In his opinion, the ASF crisis is far from over and with current prices of pork at three to four times breakeven, the prospect of high profits will keep attracting enormous investments into the Chinese pork industry.
Last year, the largest pork producer in Germany signed a joint venture in China with the local Dekon Group to slaughter and butchering centre in the Sichuan region. The total investment amounts to €500 million, of which around €150 million is accounted for by a slaughter and cutting centre. The unit will have an initial capacity of 2 million pigs, which will be expanded to six million pigs in a second phase.
Not only investors are supposed to do well over the next couple of years but also meat exporters.
"The exporters are really in good shape because the hole in the Chinese production is so large because of African swine fever that if you have meat anywhere in the world, the Chinese want to buy it," said Mr Herzfelder.
China's pork imports for this year are expected to break another record, as the ASF crisis is expected to take a larger toll on the pig herd than it did last year.
According to official data, in May, China imported 370,000 tonnes of pork, 86% up than the same month a year ago. Total pork imports for the first five months of the year came to 1.72 million tonnes, the General Administration of Customs said, surging by 146% on the same period a year ago, informs Reuters. Imports of pork including offal were 510,000 tonnes, up 62% on the year, and bringing total imports for this year to 2.28 million tonnes.