Double impact for the German pork market
Germany is one of the largest importers of pigs and pig meat in the EU but this year, the market wasn't so strong, even before the ASF outbreak. About 13.8 million pigs were imported in 2019. Slaughter totalled around 55 million head over the same period, indicating that about 25% of Germany’s production originates from piglets born elsewhere.
With the outbreak of ASF in German wild boar reducing the market for German pig meat, there may be some desire to reduce these live imports and so cut production originating in Germany. If the pigs could be finished and slaughtered outside of Germany, the market for them would be larger. However, this may be logistically challenging, as finishing and slaughter capacity in the origin countries (mainly Denmark and the Netherlands) is likely to be insufficient.", commented Bethan Wilkins, senior analyst for AHDB.
Pig prices are expected to fall in the German market as the country may resume slaughtering only its own production due to bans applied in several large Asian markets for pork imports originating from Germany.
Live pig imports into Germany had already been falling so far this year, according to Statistics Germany. Between January and July, 5.8 million piglets were imported, 7% down on the same period in 2019. Slaughter pig imports were down to 1.4 million head, 600,000 head lower than the figure reported last year. Coronavirus-related disruption has probably influenced this trend to some extent.
One way to re-route the pigs from the German market is Poland, a country that is having its own battle with the ASF virus for more than 6 years. Poland is also the second-largest importer of live pigs in the EU, with 6.8 million head imported in 2019. This year, however, the Polish pig market was down 2% in imports, most of them coming from Denmark and slaughter figures is also down by 8%. Poland continues to struggle with its own ASF outbreak, which also affects some commercial farms, and so reports indicate that confidence in this market is not particularly high," added Ms Wilkins.
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