EU Commission: Slight decline in pork production expected in 2026
According to the latest forecast from the European Commission, pork production in the EU is expected to decline by around 1.0% to approximately 21.76 million tons in 2026. A key reason for this is likely the lower sow population observed in many member states during the last livestock census, which is now expected to result in slightly lower slaughter numbers. The self-sufficiency rate is projected to remain stable at around 115%. This means the EU will remain a net exporter, although a large proportion of these exports consist of by-products that cannot be used within the EU.
The European Commission expects exports to decline by around 3.0% in 2026. This is primarily due to the changed trade situation following the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in Spain at the end of November 2025, which led many third countries to impose import bans on Spanish pork. Regionalization agreements have since made deliveries to some countries possible again – at least partially. Nevertheless, trade flows have shifted permanently: larger quantities of Spanish pork have remained within the EU since then, creating additional supply pressure. Prices are therefore currently significantly below the 2025 level.
A return to the downward trend in per capita consumption is expected.
A slight decline is also expected on the consumption side. After a long-term downward trend, per capita consumption had stabilized in the two preceding years – in 2025 it even rose by 3.4%. Now, EU experts anticipate a further decline in consumption. For 2026, they forecast a decrease of 0.9% to 32.6 kg. In the longer term, per capita consumption would thus be around 2.0 kg, or 5.7%, below the level of 20 years ago.
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