EU Outlook: Poultry production expected to increase
After the decrease in 2022, amid high input prices and outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), EU poultry production is expected to recover during the Outlook period (+0.2 % per year), albeit with slower growth than in the past decade (2 %), mainly due to environmental restrictions and changes in consumption. Unlike previous years, the incidence of HPAI extends over the whole year instead of being a seasonal event, which will challenge the sector and more particularly the free-range production systems in the EU. The growth in EU poultry consumption will slow from 1.9 % per year in 2012-2022 to 0.2 % in the next decade. Nevertheless, this still translates into an increase in per capita consumption from 23.4 kg to 24.1 kg (+3 % over the next decade). That stems from a healthier image of poultry compared to other meats (especially pigmeat), greater ease of preparation, the absence of religious constraints regarding its consumption and its relatively cheaper price.
Poultry trade to recover slowly
EU poultry exports showed a dynamic expansion until 2019, with the main products exported being those less in demand in the EU (wings, legs, and offal). However, COVID-19, HPIA outbreaks and high domestic prices created challenging conditions for EU poultry exports and that trend was halted. By 2032, exports will recover slowly by 0.8 % per year, reaching a level of 2.4 million t, especially thanks to increasing demand from Sub-Saharan Africa, the Philippines and the UK. EU poultry imports, mostly supplying foodservice and food processors, recovered quickly in 2022, also due to the duty-free quota-free agreement with Ukraine (valid till June 2023). Without this preferential access to the EU market, imports should fall back to pre-COVID levels before increasing slowly to a level of 910 000 t by 2032.
Poultry price to stabilise above pre-COVID level
After the spike in 2022, the EU poultry price is expected to decrease and stabilise at around EUR 2 000/t by 2032, above the pre-COVID price level, mainly thanks to sustained demand in the EU. The price gap with Brazil will continue, which makes competing on the same ground almost impossible.
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