EU short-term outlook: meat products
EU beef production is expected to decrease by 0,5 % in 2022 despite high prices, mainly due to a structural adjustment in the beef and dairy sector. Exports should increase slightly thanks to recent trade agreements, but are constrained by limited domestic supply and trade frictions with the UK. EU imports are expected to recover by 15% in 2022 (after two years of lower imports) due to the reopening of food-services in the EU, a faster recovery of supply by Brazil and additional in-quota imports from Argentina.
High costs and the lasting effects of African Swine Fever (ASF) are expected to push EU pigmeat production downwards in 2022, as the carcass price increase is likely to be temporary. EU exports should also decrease due to ASF issues in spite of recovering exports to the UK and improved market shares in some other destinations.
Overall, EU pigmeat exports are expected to decrease by 9.6% in 2022, which means they would still reach a level of 19% higher than the 2016-18 average.
EU pigmeat imports from the UK are expected to increase strongly in 2022, by 34%. As a consequence, total EU pigmeat imports are due to increase by 28%, reaching a level still 21% lower than the 2016-18 average.
EU poultry production is expected to increase slightly in 2022, with Avian Influenza (AI) still being a major limiting factor. High prices compensate for high costs so far. EU exports are due to start recovering in spite of AI-related trade restrictions as well as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Additional imports from the UK, Brazil, Thailand and China may replace imports from Ukraine.
Poultry trade with the UK is certainly resuming pre-Brexit levels. EU exports to the UK are expected to increase by 20% in 2022, to a level 6% above the 2016-19 average. EU imports from the UK may increase by 25% in 2022, reaching a level still 3% below the 2016-19 average.
EU foodservice recovery is likely to continue pushing imports upwards, as witnessed early 2022 in imports from the UK, Brazil and Ukraine. Imports from Ukraine have continued and reached similar levels as in the recent years. With Ukraine’s duty-free/quota-free access to the EU market as of June 2022, they might further rise because of large quantities of grains available due to the blockage of Black Sea ports. Overall, EU poultry imports are expected to increase by 16.5% in 2022 (a level 4% below the 2016-19 average).
A historically low EU sheep and goat flock is expected to result in a production decline of 2% in 2022. Trade should resume but still at relatively low levels, leading to sustained high domestic prices. The EU-UK trade frictions continue to add uncertainty and pressure on exports and imports.
EU lamb prices in 2022 remain at unprecedented high levels. After the decline in the beginning of the year, prices reached again record levels during Easter. The main reason for this high price level is the low domestic supply against a sustained demand in the EU.
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