Expert: Real movement in China's pig prices to start at the end of summer
China's crisis on pork started to influence the global market since March but the real effects will become visible at the end of this summer, predicts Lylel Jones, Genesus Director of Sales China.
In April, pig prices in China have stabilized to $2.24/ live kg. "We believe this is an indication that heavy flow of pigs going to the slaughterhouses due to ASF continues. Reports are some slaughterhouses are running double shifts to accommodate the numbers of animals being marketed at this time. While the overall inventories of the breeding herds and commercial production farms is steadily declining, there is a surplus of pigs going to slaughter resulting in these relatively flat pig prices", explained Mr Jones.
The prices are going to increase but the speed is depending on how much cold storage there is available when flows to the slaughterhouses begin to shrink. "Back to the question of when the impact of all this will affect domestic pig prices in China? No one really knows for sure but there has been a lot of speculation upon this topic because it shall also continue to impact Global markets.
In talking with an analyst recently, indications are we may begin seeing real movement in pig prices toward the end of this summer. It is also anticipated that domestic pig prices in China may reach extreme upper limits surpassing all-time highs perhaps starting in January 2020", says Lylel Jones.
Meantime, biosecurity measures adopted in the North and Central China are paying results, with fewer reports of ongoing outbreaks in these provinces.
"In the south, it seems the spread has been picking up in provinces like Guangdong, Guangxi, and Fujian. Everyone’s focus is upon protecting their farms and learning and adopting biosecurity procedures.
Biosecurity is the most important daily task- nothing else matters. Even some farms not yet affected by the disease have paused breeding to focus upon perfecting these procedures.
We hear of very elaborate biosecurity systems being developed with not only physical barriers but special surveillance cameras with uplinks to satellites. These systems feature custom software to provide verification that these procedures are being fully implemented.
As a result of these intensive efforts to adopt and master biosecurity, there are reports that other diseases are declining and overall herd health improving. Thus, we are seeing some positive results that will provide benefits for the future from the battle against this unfortunate disease", added the expert.
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