Germany: What's next for the slaughter pig market
However, there is reason to hope that the market can now recover at this lower price level. A surplus EU market due to a lack of exports to third countries and a weakening domestic restaurant sector are offset by positive sales figures for pork in the retail food sector.
The current price weakness is not due to an oversupply on the domestic live animal market. From January to April, the number of slaughters in Germany remained roughly at the previous year's level, with a minimal decrease of 0.1%. The weekly BLE slaughter figures also indicate a continuation of this stable trend. However, slaughters in the EU increased by 2% in the first quarter – driven by higher figures in Denmark (+8.0%) and Spain (+3.9%). Only in the Netherlands did slaughters decline sharply (-6.3%). Overall, while the increased slaughter figures may have put pressure on the market, declining livestock numbers (especially sows) and a further seasonal decrease in supply during the summer should provide some relief.
The current EU-wide price problem stems primarily from the demand side. Since Spain accounts for more than a third of all EU pork exports to third countries, the export bans imposed there due to African swine fever (ASF) are impacting the entire European market. Because Spain exported around 60,000 tons (or 16%) less to third countries in the first quarter of 2026, these quantities of meat were forced into the EU single market. However, Spain was able to almost compensate for its overall exports during the same period by increasing exports to other EU member states by over 20%. And this was achieved, and continues to be achieved, through price reductions.
The demand for pork in Germany is split. While meat sales in the food service sector are declining – the restaurant industry experienced a 6.2% drop in revenue in the first quarter compared to the previous year – pork sales in the grocery retail sector remain stable. In April, grocery retailers even recorded a 4.2% increase in volume compared to the same month last year – figures for May are not yet available. At the checkout counter, the commitment of most grocery retailers to German production is clearly evident. Unfortunately, the situation is quite different in the wholesale and restaurant sectors.
The described pressure on the EU market is not new – African swine fever (ASF) in Spain and the associated collapse of exports to third countries have been a reality since the end of November. The markets had already recovered somewhat after the initial price spike. So why the renewed price decline here in Germany? Apparently, slaughterhouses used the canceled slaughter days at the end of May and beginning of June as an opportunity to fully transfer the undeniable pressure to the live market.
Supply and demand determine the price; that's nothing new, concludes ISN Managing Director Dr. Torsten Staack, but he cautions: It's equally clear that pig farmers alone cannot compensate for the missing margins across the entire supply chain. Lowering producer prices so far below cost-covering levels is not a solution. Because by doing so, buyers of the pigs and the meat are sawing off the branch they're sitting on and jeopardizing supplier structures that, once gone, are gone for good.
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