Global beef exports are expected to fall by 1% in 2026, according to the USDA
Exports from Brazil and Australia, the world's two largest exporters, are expected to decline after reaching record volumes in 2025. A greater focus on herd dynamics, which involves less cattle slaughter, will reduce production and, consequently, the exportable supply.
Global production in 2026 is projected to be 1% lower, at 61.0 million tons, as declines in Australia, Brazil, China, the European Union and the United States more than offset increases in India, Mexico, New Zealand and Uruguay.
Brazil is expected to produce 11.7 million metric tons (cwt) of beef next year, a year-on-year decrease of 650,000 metric tons . Production in China is expected to fall by 230,000 metric tons to 7.56 million metric tons.
The USDA sharply increased its estimate of Chinese beef imports for this year to 3.815 million tons, and projects a drop to 3.75 million tons in 2026.
Brazilian exports are projected to decrease by 250,000 tons next year, to 4 million cwt tons . The figures for 2025 and 2026 were significantly revised upward compared to previous projections from the USDA office in Brasil.
Mercosur beef exports would fall by 205,000 tons in 2026, to 5.815 million tons, as increases from Argentine and Uruguay would only partially offset reductions from Brazil and Paraguay.
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