Global pig inventory up 15% in 2021
The global swine stocks were estimated at 753 million head at the start of 2021, a 15% lift relative to 2020 levels, but still, a long way short of the 781 million head reported in 2018, just prior to the outbreak of ASF in China.
A recent report from Reuters indicated that northern China has lost about 20% of its breeding herd so far in 2021 due to ASF, implying a 7–8% decline in China’s total breeding herd for Q1 2021. While the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) has made announcements around a production recovery to boost industry and consumer confidence, indications suggest there may be some under-reporting of ASF, according to Meat and Livestock Australia.
The ASF crisis in Asia is going to remain a hot topic for the industry as new strains of the virus have been discovered in China. While China's production in 2021 is expected to still sit 25% below pre-ASF levels, it is nevertheless expected to lift 11% on last year’s production volumes. Hog inventories grew rapidly in 2020, however, ongoing ASF challenges related to the new strain of the virus will continue to constrain production. The EU, the US, Canada and Brazil are likely to remain key pork suppliers to China throughout 2021.
Global pork production is forecast to rise by 5% in 2021 to reach 101.5 million tonnes cwe (USDA), as some of the major Asian pork producers are expected to continue to rebuild and recover from the impacts of ASF.
On the other hand, the ASF crisis in China may benefit beef and sheepmeat producers as consumption trends are expected to change in the following years. Pork consumption in the Asian country hit its peak in 2014, with 41.7kg per person, but is not expected to go back there over the next five years. Estimates from GIRA experts are showing that per capita pork consumption in China is to reach almost 34 kg in 2025. Last year it stood at 23.2 kg per person.
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