Global poultry market improves but fragility remains
The first three months of 2019 wasn't the greatest season for poultry producers around the world as the volumes traded in the global market stood at 2.8 million tonnes, their lowest since 2015, considers Nan-Dirk Mulder, senior animal protein analyst at Rabobank. Nevertheless, the ASF situation in Asia has improved the global market outlook for poultry in the second quarter of 2019 as countries affected by the virus such as China and Vietnam are shifting consumption from pork to other animal protein.
"The balance in the market is gradually returning, driven by stronger dark meat demand from Asia and Africa. Having said this, global trade volumes in Q1 2019 were just 2.8m metric tons, and at their lowest since 2015, indicating ongoing tough issues in poultry trade and ongoing low breast meat prices.
The bullish Chinese market situation will have some impact on global markets. This will mainly be through some price support in pork exporting countries. But, as long as China does not allow more imports, this will have a relatively limited impact on global poultry trade, except for countries who can export, such as Brazil, Thailand and Argentina and soon Russia,", mentioned the analyst in the bank's quarterly report.
Avian Influenza cases are lower than a year ago but outbreaks are still present in countries such as Mexico, Vietnam, Cambodia, Nepal and Taiwan, impacting local industries and communities.
A more balanced supply in key trading markets like Brazil Thailand, the US and the EU had a positive impact in the global poultry market but trade issues between the largest actors in the market are keeping a fragile outlook for the rest of the year.
For now, China is the best performing poultry industry, with exceptionally high poultry prices due to the shift from pork to poultry as a result of the worsening situation with African Swine Fever (ASF) and very low breeding stock levels, which has pushed PS and DOC prices up to historically high levels, according to the report.
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