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Grocery market outlook shows France as the biggest winner in the EU

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The USA will gain in value terms compared to our previous forecasts; China retains second place but will be smaller for the next three years - says IGD study.

Posted on Jul 28 ,09:43

Grocery market outlook shows France as the biggest winner in the EU

A new study released by IGD shows that the post-pandemic grocery market is going to change its evolution for the next three years. Market growth in some regions will slow down, while other countries will evolve rapidly. The US, which stands as the world's largest grocery market, is expected to gain an extra 18% in value terms in 2020 versus the old forecast. "Even though the annual growth rates for 2021 and 2022 are now lower than previously estimated, the market size remains elevated. We anticipate the US grocery market will reach $1,650 billion by 2022," says Lii Bernovski-Smith, Senior Business Analyst for IGD.
At the same time, China will experience a slower growth rate than previously anticipated. "The Chinese grocery market is set to be smaller for the next three years than we estimated before the pandemic. We also expect the growth in value terms from 2020 to 2022 to be lower: $147 billion in the new forecast vs $170 billion anticipated previously."
In Western Europe, France seems to be the biggest winner in this sector, while Italy will lose the trend of growth, according to the analysis.

New grocery market values (US$ bn, 2019 exchange rates)

2019

2020

2021

2022

China

1,361

1,445

1,513

1,592

France

277

286

286

288

Germany

285

299

298

302

Italy

204

210

208

209

Spain

129

134

133

133

UK

251

261

269

274

USA

1,520

1,650

1,642

1,650

Old grocery market values (US$ bn, 2019 exchange rates)

 

 

 

 

China

1,429

1,510

1,594

1,680

France

263

268

273

278

Germany

285

292

298

305

Italy

204

207

211

214

Spain

129

132

135

138

UK

252

258

263

270

USA

1,354

1,396

1,422

1,450

 
Looking at Germany, France, Italy and Spain, France is the only country where the new forecast leads to a larger market in 2022 than IGD projected before the pandemic. Italy will sustain the biggest loss; the new 2022 market size is $5 billion smaller than the old forecast.

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