HCC: Beef supply forecast to fall further
As of October 1, 2024, the total cattle and calf population in Great Britain (GB) stood at 7.7 million head - a year-on-year decline of two per cent, according to data from the British Cattle Movement Service (BCMS) reported in this month’s Market Bulletin from Hybu Cig Cymru-Meat Promotion Wales (HCC).
"This represents 163,100 fewer animals, and a further three per cent decrease compared to October 2022", said Glesni Phillips, HCC’s Intelligence, Analysis & Business Insight Executive. "Beef cattle numbers fell by 1.8 per cent to 5.0 million head, while the dairy herd contracted by 2.5 per cent to 2.8 million head, continuing a downward trend observed in recent years".
She explained that by examining cattle categories and age brackets it was possible to gain insights into potential market supply in the short and longer term. “The population of cattle aged over thirty months stands at 2.8 million head, a decline of two per cent from the previous year and 3.5 per cent lower than in 2022,” said Glesni.
"Within this category, breeding females over the age of 30 months are an indicator of the breeding herd size - decreased by two per cent to 2.7 million head. This reduction was driven by a four per cent contraction in the beef breeding herd, while the dairy breeding herd remained stable at 1.4 million head".
She said the population of cattle under thirty months in GB, as of October 2024, fell to just under five million head, a 2.2 per cent reduction compared to the previous year. “Data for beef cattle and dairy males aged 12-30 months give an indication of the potential supply of prime cattle onto the market in the short term. There were 2 per cent fewer animals on the ground when compared to 2023, which suggests that supply in the shorter term will be tighter when compared to historical levels.
"For the longer term, the population of beef cattle and dairy males aged 0-12 months declined by 1.8 per cent to nearly 1.9 million head. This decrease indicates that a lower prime cattle supply is likely to persist further down the line".
Beef production in October 2024 achieved a monthly total of 92,000 tonnes - the highest volume recorded since 2012, according to data from Defra. Prime cattle throughput for the period from January to October 2024 reached 1.8 million head, a rise by five per cent compared to the same period in 2023.
"Despite this ample supply, deadweight prices have shown an upward trend", observed Glesni. "In mid-September, the steer deadweight average price in England and Wales reached new record highs of £5/kilo, and prices have maintained this upward trajectory with current prices some nine per cent higher year-on-year".
She said that although farmgate prices had risen, these increases have yet to significantly affect consumer prices. The average retail price of beef was up by just 1.7 per cent year-on-year during the latest 12 weeks to November 3rd, 2024. Consumer experts Kantar report relatively stable beef prices at retail have supported demand from consumers during the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.
Glesni reported that the trends within the cattle population in Wales largely reflect those seen across GB. "As of October 1, 2024, Wales had 1.1 million cattle, representing 14 per cent of the GB herd and marking a year-on-year decline of 1.5%. The potential supply of prime animals in the short term was down one per cent on the year, whilst the potential supply in the longer term was down two per cent", she said.
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