Increase in Irish beef exports foreseen by BordBia
Irish beef exports value grew by 9% in 2021, although the volumes shipped abroad have declined, according to a recent outlook released by BordBia. Total value of Irish beef exports was €2.1 billion last year, as the presence of the products has increased in international markets (22%, up from 19% in 2020) and in the EU single market (45%, up from 41% in 2020). At the same time, volumes shipped to the British market went down to 33% from 37% two years ago.
According to Government figures, Irish cattle throughputs fell by 6% (98,000 head) in 2021 to 1.7 million head, as cattle supplies remained tight. This helped keep Irish cattle prices supported through the year, with the 2021 average deadweight R3 steer price at €4.31/kg, up 12% (43p/kg) from the year before (EU Commission). For 2022, Irish cattle slaughter is expected to show some recovery, by an estimated 70-80,000 head (+3-4%). Population data would suggest that the majority of 2022 production growth will be later in the year, with an increase evident in numbers of cattle aged 18-24 months. Bord Bia reported that supplies are forecast to remain relatively tight for the first half of the year, constrained by numbers of older prime cattle.
In terms of volume, total Irish beef exports fell by 12% last year, but, as mentioned above the value was rising due to tight beef supply in the global market. Prospects for this year are much depending on regaining access to key markets such as China and the UK but also to the volume of sales in foodservice.
"The outlook for Irish beef exports to EU27 and the UK remains broadly positive for 2022 with the markets set to be relatively balanced in terms of supply and demand. Global market demand seems set to remain good as global supplies look set to be tight as a result of pressure on output from both North and South America as a result of drought conditions in both regions in 2021. Market demand for Irish beef will be influenced by the sustained demand from our key British customers and a continuation of free access to that market in 2022," said the report.
While it can be expected that there will be some growth in non-EU beef imports in 2022, the recovery in demand from the foodservice sector and greater exports to international markets should keep largely positive market dynamics in place. "China’s import demand for beef continues to grow and is expected (by the United States Department of Agriculture) to reach 3.25 million tonnes in 2022. If market access can be regained, this will pose a sizeable opportunity to grow exports to that market on the same trajectory as in the first half of 2020. A return to previous import demand levels and a growing interest in Irish beef in Japan should also see growth in the Asian market.
"Irish cattle availability is expected to increase in the second half of 2022. Bord Bia’s analysis of the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine’s Animal Identification and Movement (AIM) database and related production and trade factors, indicate an increase of 50,000 head (+3%) in finished cattle supplies for 2022 as a whole," Irish analysts added in their report.
On the other hand, a report from UK's AHDB mentioned a possible rebound for Irish beef in this market. "From our own forecasts, more beef is expected to be sold through the UK foodservice (eating-out) market in 2022, although not as much as pre-pandemic levels due to business closures and people working from home on a more permanent basis. These factors are expected to be positive for Irish exports in 2022. A forecast rise in production of price-competitive Irish product, and expectations of greater demand for beef from the UK eating-out market will likely make Irish imports increasingly attractive in 2022. From a price point of view, any shift in beef demand from retail back into foodservice could likely exert some pressure on demand for home-grown cattle. However, UK cattle supplies are expected to remain on the tighter side for the first half of 2022, which should offer support to prices," commented Hannah Clarke, livestock analyst, AHDB.
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