Poultry consumption expected to increase in China
Analysts at USDA expect China's production to increase based on a rise in demand for poultry among the Chinese population. Demand for poultry meat and products plummeted after China recorded its worst H7N9 avian influenza (AI) virus outbreak in the fall of 2016, which continued into the summer of 2017.
In July 2017, China’s Ministry of Agriculture began an intensive H7 vaccination campaign. During the flu season (October 2017 to present), China only recorded three human illnesses due to avian influenza. The Chinese Ministry estimates that out of all China’s commercial poultry flocks, over 80% have been vaccinated against H7N9.
USDA's report says that consumption is forecasted to increase by 1% in 2018 to 11.56 mt. Analysts explain that the growth is based on a growing Chinese population, recovering from consumer concerns about the safety of
domestic poultry. Overall, China's broiler meat consumption is still very low, with per capita consumption
at about 8 kg—much lower than the 28 kg per capita level in Taiwan.
Last year, Brazil accounted for the largest share of poultry exports to China, namely 85%, followed by Argentina with 12%, Chile with 3% and Poland with 3%.
However, Brazil is currently plagued by a long-running scandal which has affected its ability to export meat and poultry. On March 6, 2018, Brazil’s largest poultry exporter BRF was caught up in a cheating operation by the Brazilian government. As a result, BRF has suspended operations at three of its large poultry meat export plants.
Analysts at USDA estimate that China's poultry imports from Brazil will drop this year and since the country accounted for such a large market share in 2017, experts say that other major trading partners have limited production capacity to fill the gap.
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